Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Nov 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 923 (S05W48) continues to decrease in area and number of spots.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. Region 923 (S05W48) continues to have the potential for isolated C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (18 – 20 November).

III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 17 Nov 090
• Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 090/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 17 Nov 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 005/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 006/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/30/30
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05