Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Nov 2005

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Nov 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 822 (S07E15) produced numerous B-class flares during the last 24 hours. The largest of these included a B5.8/Sf event occurring at 17/0143Z and a B6.6 event occurring at 17/0314Z. A slight growth in the number of sunspots was observed during this period. This region remains a beta-gamma spot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 18-19 November. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 20 November.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov

• Class M 50/50/50
• Class X 05/05/05
• Proton 05/05/05
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 17 Nov 101
• Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 100/100/100
• 90 Day Mean 17 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 001/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 005/005-005/005-007/007

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/20
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05