Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Nov 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Nov 17 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels today.
Region 700 (N04W80) was in steady decay today as it began to rotate
off the west solar limb. Flare production was limited to B-class
flare activity today. Region 702 (S10W27) is a rapidly developing
magnetic beta group that was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today. An
isolated active period was observed at middle latitudes between
17/0600 and 0900Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through 18 and 19
November. Isolated active conditions may occur on 20 November in
response to an anticipated coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
C

• lass M 10/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 17 Nov 105
• Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 110/110/110
• 90 Day Mean 17 Nov 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 005/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 004/007
• Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 004/008-002/008-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/20
• Minor storm 01/01/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/25
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05