Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 May 2008
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 May 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on the first day of the forecast period (18 May), becoming unsettled to active on day two as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective. Conditions on day three will continue to be unsettled to active, with a chance for minor storms at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 18 May-20 May
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 17 May 071
- Predicted 18 May-20 May 072/072/072
- 90 Day Mean 17 May 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 16 May 003/004
- Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May 005/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 005/005-010/012-015/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May-20 May
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/20/30
- Minor storm 05/10/15
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 10/25/45
- Minor storm 05/15/25
- Major-severe storm 01/01/10