Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 May 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 May 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with the possibility of isolated minor storm periods due to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 18 May-20 May

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 17 May 072
• Predicted 18 May-20 May 070/075/080
• 90 Day Mean 17 May 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 16 May 000/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 010/010-010/020-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May-20 May A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/35/20
• Minor storm 15/20/10
• Major-severe storm 05/10/01