Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 May 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 May 17 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 763 (S14W10)
produced an M1.8/1B tenflare at 17/0239 UTC with associated type II
and type IV radio sweeps. Associated with this flare, a very faint
full halo CME was seen on LASCO imagery beginning at 17/0350 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE
ranged from 650 km/s to 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at unsettled to active levels for 18 May. Quiet
to active conditions are expected on 19 May as the faint full halo
CME may arrive late in the period. Unsettled conditions are
expected on 20 May.
III. Event Probabilities 18 May-20 May
- Class M 40/40/30
- Class X 10/05/05
- Proton 10/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 17 May 090
- Predicted 18 May-20 May 090/090/085
- 90 Day Mean 17 May 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 16 May 018/033
- Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May 012/020
- Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 010/020-012/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May-20 May
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/25/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/25/25
- Minor storm 25/15/15
- Major-severe storm 15/05/05
