Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 May 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
May 17, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 May 17 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 614 (S08W89) generated
the largest flare of the past day, a C7/Sf at 17/0417 UTC. Region
609 (S03W31) continued to decay and produced only B-class flares.
New Region 617 (S12E11) emerged on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
C-class flares are possible in Regions 609 and 614.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. NOTE: The ACE spacecraft orbit
will bring ACE nearly in line with the Sun from about 30 May to 02 June, 2004. During that time solar radio noise is expected to interfere
with spacecraft telemetry resulting in the loss of solar wind
plasma, magnetic field, and particle data.

III. Event Probabilities 18 May-20 May

  • Class M 30/30/30
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 17 May 111
  • Predicted 18 May-20 May 110/110/105
  • 90 Day Mean 17 May 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 16 May 004/004
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May 005/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 005/008-005/008-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May-20 May

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/25
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.