Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 March 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Mar 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1169
(N18W89) produced a single B4 X-ray event at 17/1153Z. After further
analysis, the partial-halo CME associated with the long-duration
C3/Sf flare at 16/2034Z from Region 1169 (N17W75 at the time of the
event) did not appear to be Earth-directed. New Region 1174 (N22W36)
emerged on the disk as a simple bi-polar group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels for the next three days (18 – 20
March). A chance for C-class activity exists all three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (18 – 20 March).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 090
Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 085/080/085
90 Day Mean 17 Mar 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 001/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01