Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Mar 2007
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Mar 17 2249 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed declined gradually during the past 24 hours from initial values around 630 km/s to values around 520 km/s at forecast issue time. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was high during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (18-20 March).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 17 Mar 069
- Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 070/070/070
- 90 Day Mean 17 Mar 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 011/010
- Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 007/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/10/10
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/15/15
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01