Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Mar 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Mar 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. There are just two small, unipolar sunspot groups on the visible disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 18 March. A high speed coronal hole stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 19 March. Expect active conditions with minor storm periods at high latitudes on both 19 and 20 March.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 17 Mar 072
• Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 17 Mar 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 004/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 005/010-010/020-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/30/30
• Minor storm 01/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/40/40
• Minor storm 05/25/25
• Major-severe storm 01/10/10