Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Mar 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Mar 17 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Only B-class events
have been observed, mostly from Region 742 (S06W65).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled on 18 March. Quiet to unsettled is
expected on 19 March, decreasing to quiet on 20 March.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 17 Mar 101
• Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 100/100/095
• 90 Day Mean 17 Mar 098

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 004/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 012/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 010/008-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/10
• Minor storm 15/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/25/15
• Minor storm 20/15/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01