Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Mar 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
March 17, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Mar 17 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region
574 (S02E56) showed significant growth in sunspot coverage and
magnetic complexity since yesterday. The dominant central sunspots
appear to be merging to form a small magnetic delta complex. This
region produced multiple B and C-class flares throughout the period.
Region 572 (N19W72) produced a C1 x-ray flare at 17/0931Z with an
associated Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity
of 1207 km/s. In response to this flare a CME was seen emanating
from the solar northwest limb (on LASCO imagery) which does not
appear to be Earth directed. Region 570 (S14W80) continues to show
a slow, steady decay. Regions 575 (S18W02), 576 (S18W38), and 577
(S01E77) were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 574 has a small chance of producing an isolated
low-level M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar

  • Class M 20/15/10
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 17 Mar 110
  • Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 115/110/105
  • 90 Day Mean 17 Mar 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 006/008
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 005/007
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 005/008-005/008-008/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/10/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/25
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.