Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Jun 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jun 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 18 June. Conditions will range from unsettled to minor storm levels on 19-20 June as a recurrent coronal hole becomes geoeffective. There is a chance for isolated major storm periods at high latitudes on 20 June due to the coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 17 Jun 067
• Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 068/068/068
• 90 Day Mean 17 Jun 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 004/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 004/006
• Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 005/005-010/015-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/25/30
• Minor storm 10/15/20
• Major-severe storm 01/05/10

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/30/35
• Minor storm 15/20/25
• Major-severe storm 05/10/15