Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Jun 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jun 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Regions 895 (N00E09) and 896 (S12E28) were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. An isolated active period was observed between 17/0600 – 0900 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 17 Jun 073
• Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 17 Jun 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 007/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 008/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 005/008-005/008-003/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/15
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01