Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Jun 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jun 17 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was low. There was just one C-class
event during the past 24 hours, a C1/Sf at 0238 UTC from Region 634
(N12E20). Regions 634 and 635 (S11E38) continue to dominate the disk
with their size and are growing slowly, but remain relatively
stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated M-class event
from either Region 634 or Region 635.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with some isolated periods of
unsettled levels. The solar wind velocity remains slightly elevated
(450-550 km/s) but contains only weak magnetic fields (mostly
between -3 nT to +3 nT).

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jun 111
Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 17 Jun 102

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 010/010-010/012-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05