Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Jun 2003

SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare
was a C2 flare at 0222 UTC from Region 386 (S07E58). This region
continues to increase in area coverage as it rotates further onto
the visible disk. Magnetic analysis indicates a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. Region 380 (S15W64) continues a its gradual
decay in area and now has a beta magnetic configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with a chance of isolated high level
activity. Region 386 has the potential for major flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. A
six-hour period of southward Bz, from 06 – 09 UTC combined with
elevated solar wind speed near 510 km/s produced minor and major
storm levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. A weak CME shock
is possible late on day one with isolated minor storm levels
possible. High speed stream effects are expected on day two and day
three with minor storm levels possible.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun

• Class M 40/40/40
• Class X 20/20/20
• Proton 30/20/20
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 17 Jun 122
• Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 125/120/120
• 90 Day Mean 17 Jun 125

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 020/032
• Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 040/050
• Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 020/030-020/030-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 35/40/40
• Minor storm 15/20/20
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/50/50
• Minor storm 20/25/25
• Major-severe storm 10/15/15

VII Comment:

K-Indices:

On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the H-trace on the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.

GOES Protons:

To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. Beginning 1700 UTC on June 18, GOES 11 (105W) will become the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors – magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.