Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Jul 2008
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jul 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, indicated a gradual decrease in velocities from about 530 km/s at the beginning of the period, to near 460 km/s by forecast issue time. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (18 – 20 July).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 17 Jul 065
- Predicted 18 Jul-20 Jul 066/066/066
- 90 Day Mean 17 Jul 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul 004/007
- Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul 005/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/10/10
- Minor storm 01/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/10/10
- Minor storm 10/05/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01