Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Jul 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jul 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant activity has been observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater then 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 18 July. Expect unsettled to active conditions with a chance for isolated minor storming on 19 – 20 July as a recurring coronal hole moves into geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 17 Jul 072
• Predicted 18 Jul-20 Jul 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 17 Jul 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul 004/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 005/005-008/010-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/15/20
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/20/25
• Minor storm 05/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05