Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Jul 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jul 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 900 (S05E02) remains a beta magnetic configuration. Several enhancements and near surging have been observed in this region which have resulted in slight fluctuations in the x-ray background. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region 900.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 17 Jul 071
• Predicted 18 Jul-20 Jul 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 17 Jul 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 003/005-003/005-003/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01