Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 1401
(N18E38) produced an M1/1n at 17/0453Z. The other significant spot
group, Region 1402 (N28E40), was quiet during the period. Both
regions continued their growth phase in area and magnetic complexity
and are both classified E-type Beta-Gamma groups. New Region 1406
(S23W55) emerged on the disk as a D-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately low levels with a chance for M-class activity for the
next three days (18 – 20 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
velocities, as measured at the ACE satellite, steadily decayed
during the past 24 hours from a high of near 500 km/s to a low of
about 400 km/s at the end of the period. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through day one and most of
day two (18 – 19 January). By late on day two and through day three
(20 January), the field is expected to increase to quiet to
unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods. This activity
is due to the anticipated effects from a glancing blow as a result
of the 16 January CME.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jan 139
Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 145/150/155
90 Day Mean 17 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 004/005-006/006-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/20