Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Jan 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
January 17, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jan 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1040 (N30W74)
produced two flares during the past 24 hours. The largest of these
was a B6.1 at 17/2025Z. Region 1040 continued to slowly decay as it
neared the west limb, while retaining its beta configuration. A
flare and subsequent EUVI wave was observed near the southeast limb
on STEREO-B EUVI imagery at 17/0356Z. SOHO EIT C2 imagery showed a
CME off the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares remain possible, as well as a
slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active levels
possible at high latitudes, as a coronal hole high-speed stream
moves into a geoeffective position late on day one (18 January) and
continuing into day two (19 January). Quiet levels are expected to
return on day three (20).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M 10/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jan 083
Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 083/083/080
90 Day Mean 17 Jan 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 001/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 006/007-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.