Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Jan 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jan 17 2237 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. No significant development was observed from the active regions on the solar disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Regions 846 (N04W56) or 847 (S08W35).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 17 Jan 083
• Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 085/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 17 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 008/014
• Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 008/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/30/30
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/35/35
• Minor storm 20/20/20
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01