Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Jan 2003

SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. A small, four degree
filament near S03W04 disappeared sometime between 16/2338 UTC and
17/1452 UTC. Region 259 (N09E26) showed moderate growth but could
only muster a B-class subflare. The remainder of the solar disk was
quiet and stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Real-time
solar wind data indicated a solar sector boundary crossing at about
1200 UTC on 17 January.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled for the next three days.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan

• Class M 20/20/20
• Class X 05/05/05
• Proton 05/05/05
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 17 Jan 142
• Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 135/135/125
• 90 Day Mean 17 Jan 162

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 004/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 010/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 010/012-010/012-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05