Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Feb 2009
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Feb 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the period. The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. During the period, solar wind speed steadily decreased from about 440 km/s to near 375 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (18 – 20 February)
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 17 Feb 071
- Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 070/070/070
- 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 002/003
- Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 002/004
- Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 05/05/05
- Minor storm 01/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 10/10/10
- Minor storm 01/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01