Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Feb 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Feb 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 854 (S08W09) and newly numbered Region 855 (N05E15) are both in decay. A large CME was observed off the northeast limb at approximately 17/0530Z. The CME is not expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 18 February. A coronal hole high speed solar wind stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 19 February. Unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are possible on 19 and 20 February.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 17 Feb 079
• Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 080/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 007/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 005/006
• Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 005/005-010/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/25/25
• Minor storm 01/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/30/30
• Minor storm 05/15/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05