Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Feb 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Feb 17 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels today. The
largest event of the period was a long duration B4 x-ray flare that
occurred at 17/2006Z. The event appeared to be from a source region
just beyond the southeast solar limb. Surging in the northwest
solar quadrant was observed just prior to this activity. Regions
554 (S08W56) and 561 (N02E39) are currently the only spotted active
regions on the visible disk. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 17 Feb 102
- Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 100/100/095
- 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 006/007
- Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 003/007
- Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 004/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/15/15
- Minor storm 01/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/15/15
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
