Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 December 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Dec 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest event in the past
24 hours was a C1 flare at 0501Z from Region 1376 (N21W04). Region
1374 (S18W50) is the largest region on the disk but remains stable
and quiet. New Regions 1379 (S29W22) and 1380 (S20E70) were
assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (18-20
December).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Dec 120
Predicted 18 Dec-20 Dec 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 17 Dec 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec 002/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec 000/000
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/20/10
Major-severe storm 05/10/05