Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 December 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Dec 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1135 (N19E02)
produced low level B-class flares during the period and is
classified as an Axx spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. Unsettled conditions were
observed at mid-latitudes for the 17/0300Z reporting period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two
(18-19 December) due to effects from a coronal hole high speed
stream. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for day three (20
December).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Dec 082
Predicted 18 Dec-20 Dec 080/080/078
90 Day Mean 17 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 007/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/00
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01