Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 December 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Dec 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. One C-class event occurred
from Region 1035 (N30W32), a C1/Sf at 16/2149Z. There were numerous
B-class events throughout the period. Region 1035 has grown in area
to approximately 210 millionths. However, the region has lost its
delta magnetic configuration and is now a beta.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region
1035.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet during days 1-2 (18-19 December). An increase
to unsettled to active levels is expected on day three (20
December). The increase is forecast due to the expected arrival of
the CME observed on 16 December.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Dec 087
Predicted 18 Dec-20 Dec 088/088/088
90 Day Mean 17 Dec 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 005/005-005/006-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/45
Minor storm 01/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/20/50
Minor storm 01/10/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/10