Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Dec 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Dec 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. The ACE spacecraft indicated a possible CME signature from a filament that erupted on 12 December. There was a slight increase in wind speed and density with minor fluctuations in the IMF.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (18-20 December)

III. Event Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 17 Dec 069
• Predicted 18 Dec-20 Dec 068/068/068
• 90 Day Mean 17 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec 004/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01