Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Dec 2005

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Dec 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels again today. Region 836 (S10W91) produced a C1 x-ray flare at 16/2103Z, as this region began to rotate off the west limb. An associated CME was seen in LASCO imagery that appears to have a westward component, not expecting any geoeffective conditions. Region 834 (S07W32) has shown growth during the period and has developed into a beta-gamma magnetic sunspot classification. Region 837 (S10E22) is a newly numbered four spot, Dso beta group. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Region 834 has the potential to produced C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet top unsettled levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec

• Class M 10/15/15
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 17 Dec 085
• Predicted 18 Dec-20 Dec 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 17 Dec 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec 003/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 004/008-004/005-004/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/15/20
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01