Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Dec 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
December 17, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Dec 17 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 525 (N09E56)
produced a C8.6/Sf at 0313Z. Two new regions were numbered today;
Region 526 (N12W54) and Region 527 (S15W41).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Active regions observed on EIT imagery just beyond the east limb may
increase the level of solar activity beginning 20 December.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Solar wind speed
observed at ACE continued a gradual decline to below 500 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit continued
at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. A coronal hole rotating into
geoeffective position on 19 December may produce elevated solar wind
speed, resulting in isolated active to minor storm conditions in the
geomagnetic field on 19-20 December.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec

  • ass M 05/05/10
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 17 Dec 118
  • Predicted 18 Dec-20 Dec 125/130/135
  • 90 Day Mean 17 Dec 135

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec 009/011
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec 011/012
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 010/012-015/018-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/45/45
  • Minor storm 10/20/20
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/40/40
  • Minor storm 15/25/25
  • Major-severe storm 05/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.