Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Aug 2008
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Aug 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (18-20 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for the next three days (18-20 August). The increase is in response to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 17 Aug 067
- Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 066/066/066
- 90 Day Mean 17 Aug 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 004/005
- Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 007/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 010/010-012/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/35/15
- Minor storm 10/10/05
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 50/55/20
- Minor storm 15/20/10
- Major-severe storm 10/10/05