Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Aug 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Aug 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (18-20 August).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for the next three days (18-20 August). The increase is in response to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 17 Aug 067
• Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 066/066/066
• 90 Day Mean 17 Aug 066

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 004/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 007/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 010/010-012/015-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/35/15
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 50/55/20
• Minor storm 15/20/10
• Major-severe storm 10/10/05