Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. There was no significant activity observed this period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed decreased to less than 400 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. A coronal hole is expected to result in occasional unsettled periods on 19 Aug.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 17 Aug 068
- Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 065/065/070
- 90 Day Mean 17 Aug 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 006/007
- Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 005/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 005/005-008/012-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/20/15
- Minor storm 01/05/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/25/20
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01