Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Aug 2006

By SpaceRef Editor
August 17, 2006
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Aug 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Aug 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 904 (S13W28) produced two C1 flares in the past 24 hours. This region continues to be the only spotted group on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 18 August. Expect active to minor storms levels on 19 August, with possible isolated major storm conditions. This activity is expected due to the full halo CME obseved on 16 August. Predominantly unsettled to active levels should return on 20 August.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug

  • Class M 15/15/15
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 17 Aug 086
  • Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 090/090/090
  • 90 Day Mean 17 Aug 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 002/003
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 004/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 010/010-025/025-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/35/30
  • Minor storm 10/20/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/10/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/35/30
  • Minor storm 15/25/20
  • Major-severe storm 05/15/10

SpaceRef staff editor.