Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Apr 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Apr 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 17 Apr 078
• Predicted 18 Apr-20 Apr 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 17 Apr 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 16 Apr 008/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Apr 004/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr 005/008-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01