Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 17 Apr 2003

By SpaceRef Editor

April 17, 2003

Filed under Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA), Space Weather Solar-Geophysical Activity, US

SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. There was a single
minor B-class event during the past 24 hours. A new Region 336
(N12E75) was numbered today. All spotted regions on the disk
continue to be small, quiet, and stable. There has been a slow
increase in background levels due to the arrival of the new region.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. The background levels are likely to continue to increase
slightly with the addition of regions which are now visible in GOES
Solar x-ray imagery behind East limb at N20 and S25.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active during the past
24 hours with a minor storm period from 0300-0900 UTC in the mid
latitudes, and a minor storm period at high latitudes from both
0300-1200 UTC and 1500-1800 UTC. The coronal-hole induced high speed
solar wind flow continues. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active but decreasing to unsettled within the
next 24 hours as the current disturbance transitions out of
geoeffective range. Continued unsettled levels are expected for days
two and three.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr