Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 September 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Sep 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. New Region 1108
(S29E69) was numbered today and produced multiple B-class events.
Currently the region is classified as an Cko-type group with an area
of 290 millionths although the region is still rotating around the
southeast limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low,
as C-class events are likely for the next three days (17-19
September). There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event
from Region 1108.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled with isolated
active periods observed at some high-latitude locations.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with a slight chance
for an isolated active period on day one (17 September). Days two
and three (18-19 September) are expected to be quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Sep 083
Predicted 17 Sep-19 Sep 085/086/086
90 Day Mean 16 Sep 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 006/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01