Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Sep 2008

By SpaceRef Editor
September 16, 2008
Filed under , , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity Issued: 2008 Sep 16 2200 UTC Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The visible disk remained spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet to unsettled. An isolated active period was observed between 16/0300-0600Z. Solar wind speed measured at the ACE Spacecraft showed a gradual decrease from approximately 610 km/s to 530 km/s during the forecast period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet with isolated unsettled conditions for the next three days (17-19) September.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 16 Sep 069
  • Predicted 17 Sep-19 Sep 066/066/066
  • 90 Day Mean 16 Sep 066

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 011/015
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep 007/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/10/10
  • Minor storm 01/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 10/10/10
  • Minor storm 01/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.