Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Sep 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Sep 16 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the forecast period, 17 – 19 September.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 16 Sep 067
• Predicted 17 Sep-19 Sep 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 16 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 004/005-004/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01