Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Sep 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Sep 16 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Only B-class activity has been observed for the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (17 – 19 September).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active periods on 17 – 18 September due to a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 19 September.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 16 Sep 079
• Predicted 17 Sep-19 Sep 078/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 16 Sep 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 000/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 010/015-005/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/20/15
• Minor storm 15/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01