Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Sep 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Sep 16 2204 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 808 (S11W37) produced three M-class flares. The largest of these was an M4.4/1b flare at 16/0149 UTC. The area of Region 808 has decayed to approximately 620 millionths; however, the region still exhibits a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Active levels were the result of the high solar wind speeds early in the UTC day. The solar wind speed declined over the past 24 hours from about 750 km/s to about 625 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 08/0215 UTC and reached a maximum of 1880 pfu at 11/0425 UTC ended at 16/0025 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly unsettled levels for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
- Class M 70/60/60
- Class X 40/30/30
- Proton 30/30/30
- PCAF yellow
- IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 16 Sep 112
- Predicted 17 Sep-19 Sep 110/110/105
- 90 Day Mean 16 Sep 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 022/043
- Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep 015/020
- Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 008/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/25/25
- Minor storm 15/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
