Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Sep 2004

By SpaceRef Editor

September 16, 2004

Filed under Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA), Space Weather Solar-Geophysical Activity, US

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Sep 16 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 672 (N05W17)
produced a B8.7/Sf at 16/0030 UTC and a B8.4/Sf at 0345 UTC. Region
672 has decayed slightly but has maintained a beta-delta magnetic
configuration. Region 673 (S12E61) is in better view for
observation and, with trailer spots behind a larger lead spot, is in
a beta-gamma configuration. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 672 and 673 may produce C-class flares. Both regions are
capable of isolated M-class flares as well.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. There has been a
slight rise in solar wind speed at ACE since 1600 UTC, to about 550
km/s at the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for 17 September, from the
effects of increased solar winds from a geoeffective coronal hole.
Activity should subside for 18-19 September to quiet to unsettled
levels.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep