Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Sep 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 114
(S12W28) produced an M1/Sn flare at 16/0310 UTC with an associated
Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 750
km/s.  This region was also the source for several lesser C-class
flares during the period.  Spot group continues to show decay
although beta-gamma magnetic structure remains intact.  Region 105
(S07W44) was limited to minor C-class flare production today and
underwent little change during the period.  Newly numbered Region
119 (S14E32) became active during the day, producing minor C-class
flare activity.  A 34 degree solar filament erupted in the northeast
quadrant late in the period yesterday seen on SOHO/EIT imagery.  New
Regions 118 (N14E14), 120 (S19E57), 121 (S14E69), and 122 (S19E74)
were assigned today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels.  Isolated
unsettled conditions were observed at high latitudes.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux has been high today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  There is a chance for isolated
active conditions on day three of the forecast period due to a
possible weak shock passage from the  M1/Sf flare mentioned in IA. 
Greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain moderate to
high for days one and two of the forecast period.

III.  Event Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Sep 183
Predicted   17 Sep-19 Sep  180/180/175
90 Day Mean        16 Sep 177

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep  006/008-006/008-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01