Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 October 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1589 (N12W19) produced
today’s most notable event, a C3/1f flare at 16/1627Z. Region 1591
(N07E20) showed slight decay and remains the most magnetically
complex region on the disk, but did not produce any flare activity.
Region 1594 (S26E47) showed slight growth during the period. The
other regions on the disk were stable or decaying.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class event from Regions 1589, 1591,
or 1594 during the next three days (17-19 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The solar
wind velocity at the ACE spacecraft showed a steady downward trend
from initial values around 400 km/s to end-of-day values around 350
km/s. A solar sector boundary change from positive to negative was
observed at 16/1506Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (17-19
Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 137
Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 16 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10