Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 October 2011 Corrected Copy
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 16 2355 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
::::::::::CORRECTED COPY::::::::::
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1319 (N11W13) produced
the most activity during the period, including a C6 x-ray event at
16/1514Z as well as numerous other low level C-class events. Region
1317 (S26E01) produced a slow rise C1/Sf flare at 16/1355Z with
associated type II and type IV radio sweeps shortly after. The
estimated Type II speed was 618 km/s. No partial or full halo
signature indicating an Earth directed CME has been observed by SOHO
LASCO, nor was a feature ascertainable on STEREO coronagraph imagery
at the time of this report. Please note that there was an error on
the location of Region 1321 on the Solar Region Summary issued at 0030Z on 16 October. The actual location of Region 1321 was S14E50.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class flare over the next 3 days (17-19
October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled
period from 16/03-06Z due to weak CH HSS effects.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (17-19 October) as
weak CH HSS effects continue to wane.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 151
Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 150/150/150
90 Day Mean 16 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 004/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
