Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 October 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1319 (N11W13) produced
the most activity during the period, including a C6 x-ray event at
16/1514Z as well as numerous other low level C-class events. Region
1317 (S26E01) produced a slow rise C1/Sf flare at 16/1355Z with
associated type II and type IV radio sweeps shortly after. The
estimated Type II speed was 618 km/s. No partial or full halo
signature indicating an Earth directed CME has been observed by SOHO
LASCO, nor was a feature ascertainable on STEREO coronagraph imagery
at the time of this report.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class flare over the next 3 days (17-19
October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled
period from 16/03-06Z due to weak CH HSS effects.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (17-19 October) as
weak CH HSS effects continue to wane.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 151
Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 150/150/150
90 Day Mean 16 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 004/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01