Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 October 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 1112
(S18W28) produced an impulsive M2.9/1N flare at 16/1912Z. Associated
with this event were weak, discrete radio emissions ranging from
245MHz – 15,400MHz including a 140sfu Tenflare observed at 16/1916Z.
In addition, a Type II radio sweep, with an estimated shock velocity
of 929km/s was observed with this event. During the period, Region
1112 grew both in spot count and area and developed beta-gamma
magnetic characteristics. The remainder of the disk and limb
remained unchanged.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels, with a chance for additional M-class events
from Region 1112 all three days of the period (17 – 19 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels for days one and two
(17 – 18 October). By day three (19 October), unsettled to active
levels, with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes, are
expected. The increase in activity is due to a geoeffective coronal
hole high speed stream coupled with possible glancing blow effects
from the 14 October CME.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 087
Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 088/088/088
90 Day Mean 16 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 005/005-005/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/30
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/35
Minor storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01