Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Oct 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. A period of sustained
southward Bz (-3 to -4 nT) from 15/2100Z to 16/0600Z contributed to
an isolated unsettled period at 16/0600Z observed at middle
latitudes. Wind velocities steadily decreased through the period
from a high of near 440 km/s to a low of about 370 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (17 –
19 October).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 070
Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 16 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01