Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 16 Oct 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Oct 16 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 16 Oct 070
• Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 16 Oct 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 009/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 006/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 004/005-004/005-004/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/25
• Minor storm 10/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05